By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille

Everything that could go wrong for the Flames last year did go wrong. They struggled to turn chances into goals, they struggled to get wins while dominating the shot clock, and they struggled to win close games. By all accounts, the Flames were still a good team — everywhere except for where it actually mattered.

That should change this year as many players look primed for bounce-backs and are likely invigorated by a new face behind the bench.

It’s unlikely the Flames can still be a true contender this season, and it’s possible that going for it might be the wrong direction for them entirely given their current free-agent situation. But on the basis of talent within their roster, the Flames should be a lot better than they’re given credit for. This is a playoff team.

The projection

The West is pretty wide open and the Flames have a deep enough team to climb back into the playoffs after a one-season hiatus. The Flames are an on-again, off-again team that has spent the last decade yo-yoing between missing and making the playoffs. Look for this to be a year in which they make it.

A change behind the bench should help toward that goal, even more than projected for here. Jonathan Huberdeau returning to superstar form would go a long way, too. But even if that doesn’t happen and a new coach doesn’t make a profound impact, the Flames still have a team worthy of squeezing in.

Just getting in shouldn’t be the goal though, considering how old the roster is. With so many key pieces potentially heading for the exits at season’s end, this is a make-or-break season toward proving whether or not Calgary can still contend. It’s certainly not impossible, but after last season’s disappointment, it’s a lot tougher to see happening this year.

The most likely landing spot for Calgary is just outside the league’s top 10. There’s a path to contention if everything goes right, it’s just not the most realistic scenario. What is realistic is Calgary proving both sides of the coin right: that the Flames are good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do anything once they get there.

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e. the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

One of the biggest strengths for the Flames is simply the fact that this team is going into the year with a completely refreshed vibe behind the bench. The Darryl Sutter era is over, and maybe ended a year too late. Ryan Huska’s not a new face in the organization — he’s been an assistant coach in Calgary and was head coach of their AHL affiliate before that. But he brings a more innovative approach on the ice; his work at the NHL level, specifically on the team’s aggressive penalty kill, is evidence of that. But most importantly, he represents a culture shift. Management is likely hoping that will have a positive impact and help a number of players rebound this season.

While so many players in Calgary disappointed last year, this team projects to have the 13th-best Net Rating in the league, at plus-20, with the offense and defense on nearly level terms.

Someone who contributes to Calgary’s Offensive Rating is Nazem Kadri, at a plus-7. His scoring rate was pretty average compared to years past, and the fact he didn’t convert on a lot of his chances is a big reason why. But it wasn’t for a lack of trying considering the center’s shot volume and quality. As far as second-line centers go, he’s one of the stronger ones in the league.

Kadri stood out among his teammates as one of the most frequent shooters, and that’s going to be all the more important without Tyler Toffoli on the roster. At five-on-five, Kadri was one of the leaders in bringing the puck into the zone with control and generating chances in transition. And his shooting profile wasn’t one-dimensional, either; he recovered dump-ins well and generated shots off the cycle.

Another player who took a step back in the goal-scoring department last year, despite an uptick in his shots and scoring-chance creation, was Andrew Mangiapane. As it stands, he looks pretty average relative to other fourth forwards. But there’s a lot of potential here for a bounce-back if he can get back to the level he was at during his breakout season a year prior. At his best, Mangiapane can make key plays to shift from defense to offense and rush up the ice. That’s what the Flames need more of.

They also need a lot more from their bottom six, which was a big issue last season. That should change this year with Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis out of the picture, an underrated addition by subtraction. With Adam Ruzicka becoming a regular and spots open for young players like Matthew Coronato and Walker Duehr, the Flames should have more depth scoring at their disposal. Jakob Pelletier will be out for an indefinite amount of time after undergoing shoulder surgery, giving them one fewer option, which likely means more minutes for Kevin Rooney. The ability to roll four lines should make Calgary much more imposing.

Where the Flames really stand out though is on the back end. The blue line is perfectly balanced between their Offensive and Defensive ratings, for a Net Rating of plus-18 that ranks sixth in the league. The only teams to rank higher are the Golden Knights, Bruins, Rangers, Avalanche and Hurricanes — that’s pretty good company.

Five of the six projected mainstays are above average relative to a player of their position, with the standout being MacKenzie Weegar. While his plus-8 obviously matches Rasmus Andersson, it’s more valuable to see that level from someone who is slotted as a team’s No. 3 in four fewer minutes without the bonus of power-play offense. Weegar was Calgary’s top-rated player from our Top 125 players list earning rave reviews from those within the game for his all-around ability.

“He might be one of, if not the best neutral zone defender in the NHL for defensemen,” one analyst said when talking about his placement in this year’s Player Tiers. “The mixture of puck-moving and defense is probably one of the most underrated (mixes) of skills you can have. Because then you can put that guy with an offensive player and they can cover the defense while not letting them down. Or you could just say we need a shutdown pair and they can both do the defense and he can still get the puck out of the zone. … The ultimate versatility.”

We saw that over the last two years with Weegar as he earned similar results — 57 percent of the expected and actual goals — playing different roles. With Aaron Ekblad, he provided defensive cover on an offensive-minded pair. With Chris Tanev, he provided ample shutdown ability while being a strong puck-mover. Weegar may not stand out, but his results should speak for themselves and are worthy of a larger role on Calgary’s blue line.

Currently ahead of Weegar on the depth chart are Andersson and Noah Hanifin, both of whom would look a lot better if they slid down one spot. But with the Flames as deep as they are, it doesn’t really matter as long as the pairs are optimized, and it’s the overall strength that helps balance out some of the weaknesses at the top.

Andersson has strong offensive instincts and scored 50 points last season, but would likely be better suited playing Weegar, who could fill in the gaps in his game. He was fairly underwhelming at five-on-five last year with his zone entry defense and puck movement out of the zone, two areas where Weegar thrives. The duo played 280 minutes together last season, earning rave results — 55 percent of the expected goals and 62 percent of the goals — and have the potential to form a very strong top pair. It’ll be especially helpful if the Flames start playing a game more suited to his style, too.

That would leave Hanifin with Tanev, which would round out a top four that grades out as the league’s third-best behind only Colorado’s and Carolina’s. Tanev, a defensive specialist who can move the puck, should pair very well with Hanfin, who does well creating in-zone offense. There’s a lot of wear and tear with his playing style, but he’s someone the Flames can trust to shut down top competition. The duo also found success in their 317 minutes together — 65 percent of the expected goals and 54 percent of the actual goals — so it’s pretty mind-boggling that this wasn’t the more frequent top-four configuration.

That leaves some further room for optimism with regard to Calgary’s defense corps, as the Flames appear likely to start the season with a more optimal top-four formation. That should help maximize everyone’s skills and do a better job of bringing out the best results possible which could elevate Calgary further than expected.

Add a dependable Nikita Zadorov on the third pair and the potential return of Oliver Kylington, whenever that may be, and the Flames back end looks to be a significant source of strength for the team at both ends of the ice.